标題: Global environmental impacts of food system from regional shock: Russia-Ukraine war as an example

作者: Zhang, HR (Zhang, Haoran); Jiao, LM (Jiao, Limin); Li, C (Li, Cai); Deng, ZC (Deng, Zhongci); Wang, Z (Wang, Zhen); Jia, QQ (Jia, Qiqi); Lian, XH (Lian, Xihong); Liu, YL (Liu, Yaolin); Hu, YC (Hu, Yuanchao)

來源出版物: HUMANITIES & SOCIAL SCIENCES COMMUNICATIONS 卷: 11 期: 1 文獻号: 191 DOI: 10.1057/s41599-024-02667-5 出版年: JAN 31 2024

摘要: Different responses to external interference, such as regional conflict, could have distinct sustainability outcomes. Here, we developed a novel framework to examine global food shortages from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and quantify the embodied environmental impacts of disturbed and alternative food supply chains. The conflict could soon bring a 50-120 Mt shortage of nine dominant food products and cause temporal global cropland abandonment and greenhouse gas emissions decline. By contrast, the partial agricultural recovery in the next cultivation season will raise global cropland use and greenhouse gas emissions by 9-10% and 2-4% (mainly in China and Europe). However, optimized food supply networks with prioritized agricultural expansion in higher-efficiency countries could minimize food shortages and food-mile expenses, offsetting the postwar environmental increments from agricultural recovery by 45-89%. These results validate a framework to simulate the global social-ecological system, and underline the resistance opportunities and tele-connected consequences of regional disturbance.

KeyWords Plus: INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL; ELECTRICITY; RESILIENCE; EMISSIONS; IMPROVE

地址: [Zhang, Haoran; Jiao, Limin; Jia, Qiqi; Lian, Xihong; Liu, Yaolin; Hu, Yuanchao] Wuhan Univ, Sch Resources & Environm Sci, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China.

[Jiao, Limin; Liu, Yaolin] Wuhan Univ, Key Lab Geog Informat Syst, Minist Educ, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China.

[Jiao, Limin; Liu, Yaolin] Wuhan Univ, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Geospatial Technol, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China.

[Li, Cai; Deng, Zhongci; Wang, Zhen] Huazhong Agr Univ, Coll Resources & Environm, Wuhan 4300770, Peoples R China.

[Wang, Zhen] Huazhong Agr Univ, Interdisciplinary Res Ctr Terr Spatial Governance, Wuhan 430070, Peoples R China.

通訊作者地址: Jiao, LM; Hu, YC (通訊作者)，Wuhan Univ, Sch Resources & Environm Sci, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China.

Jiao, LM (通訊作者)，Wuhan Univ, Key Lab Geog Informat Syst, Minist Educ, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China.

Jiao, LM (通訊作者)，Wuhan Univ, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Geospatial Technol, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China.

Wang, Z (通訊作者)，Huazhong Agr Univ, Coll Resources & Environm, Wuhan 4300770, Peoples R China.

Wang, Z (通訊作者)，Huazhong Agr Univ, Interdisciplinary Res Ctr Terr Spatial Governance, Wuhan 430070, Peoples R China.

電子郵件地址: lmjiao@whu.edu.cn; sinoo@mail.hzau.edu.cn; yuanchao.hu@whu.edu.cn

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