标題：Dongting Lake Water Level Forecast and Its Relationship with the Three Gorges Dam Based on a Long Short-Term Memory Network

作者： Chen Liang, Hongqing Li, Mingjun Lei, and Qingyun Du

來源出版物：WATER 卷：10 期：10 文獻編号：1389 DOI：10.3390/w10101389  出版年：OCT 2018

摘要：To study the Dongting Lake water level variation and its relationship with the upstream Three Gorges Dam (TGD), a deep learning method based on a  Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network is used to establish a model that predicts the daily water levels of Dongting Lake. Seven factors are used as the input for the LSTM model and eight years of daily data (from 2003 to 2012) are used to train the model. Then, the model is applied to the test dataset (from 2011 to 2013) for forecasting  and  is  evaluated  using  the root  mean  squared  error  (RMSE) and  the  coefficient  of determination (R2). The test shows the LSTM model has better accuracy compared to the support vector machine (SVM) model. Furthermore, the model is adjusted to simulate the situation where the TGD does not exist to explore the dam’s impact. The experiment shows that the water level of Dongting  Lake  drops conspicuously  every  year from  September to  November  during the  TGD impounding  period,  and  the  water  level  increases  mildly  during  dry  seasons  due  to  TGD replenishment. Additionally,  the impact of  the TGD results  in a water  level decline  in Dongting Lake  during  flood peaks  and a  subsequent lagged  rise. This  research provides  a tool  for flood forecasting and offers a reference for TGD water regulation.

文獻類型：Article

語種：English

作者關鍵詞： deep learning; LSTM network; water level forecast; the Three Gorges Dam; Dongting Lake

通訊作者地址：Qingyun Du; School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China

電子郵件地址：qydu@whu.edu.cn

地址：

[Chen Liang; Qingyun Du]School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China

[Hongqing Li]Changjiang Water Resources Protection Institute, Wuhan 430010, China

[Mingjun Lei]Yangtze River Water Resources Protection Bureau, Wuhan 430010, China

[Qingyun Du]Key Laboratory of Geographic Information System, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China

[Qingyun Du]Key Laboratory of Digital Mapping and Land Information Application Engineering, National Administration of Surveying, Mapping and Geo-information, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China

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